What the Markets Have Already Decided | Research

Working paper · SSRN 7648300 · Posted 21 Oct 2026

Do the seat-by-seat prices on the 2026 midterms agree with the chamber-control contracts? In the Senate yes, in the House no.

Anirban Majumdar · InnovationStrat Consulting, LLC · ORCID

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Key results

Pooled across venues thirteen days out, the seat prices give 239.8 expected Democratic House seats (90% interval 221-259), 51.3 Democratic senators and 26.0 Democratic governors of 50.
Senate seat prices and chamber prices agree: a factor copula fitted to the brackets gives Democrats a 62.8% chance of control, against a chamber price of 64.5%.
House seat prices imply a 97.7% chance of a Democratic majority while the control contract trades at 90.9%, a gap of 6.7 points that survived every variant we tried.
A shift of -0.18 logit on every House seat with a loading of 0.13 reconciles seats, brackets and control, lowering the expected count to 235.5.
The House control price has an annual logit volatility of 1.01 on Polymarket and 1.19 on Kalshi, far too little to reach one half in 13 days.

Figure 1. The price of Democratic control of the House (left) and of the Senate (right): daily closes of the Democratic-control contract on Polymarket (blue) and Kalshi (gold) from listing to 21 October 2026. The dashed line marks one half.

Summary

Where the prices come from

Prediction markets now quote a price on almost every race in the 2026 midterms. We took one snapshot of Polymarket and Kalshi, with PredictIt as a third venue, at 00:03 CDT on 21 October 2026, thirteen days before the vote. Polymarket's midterm tag held 1,235 events and 6,614 quoted markets. Kalshi listed 6,108 election markets. Party-level winner contracts existed for 433 House seats on Polymarket and 426 on Kalshi.

Every book carries a margin. We removed it, pooled the venues in logit space with weights set by dollar activity, and gave each seat a measurement band built from the quoted spread and the disagreement between venues. Out of that comes one probability per seat for 435 House seats, 35 Senate races and 36 governorships. Where two venues price the same House seat, which happens for 424 seats, they agree closely: Figure 2 plots one venue against the other, the correlation is 0.9998 and the mean absolute difference is 0.69 points.

Figure 2. Polymarket against Kalshi: devigged probability of a Democratic win for the 424 House seats priced on both venues (left) and the histogram of the differences (right). Correlation 0.9998, mean absolute difference 0.69 points.

What the seat prices add up to

Add up the seat probabilities and you have the expected number of seats, whatever the dependence between races. On that basis the House prices commit the market to 239.8 Democratic seats in expectation, with a 90% interval of 221-259, while Senate prices give 51.3 Democratic senators, from 46 to 56, and governor prices give 26.0 Democrats of 50, between 21 and 30, up from 23. Toss-ups are rare. Eleven House seats, five Senate races and two governorships.

We also fitted the consensus to district partisanship and incumbency, and Figure 3 shows the fit. Each index point of the Cook Partisan Voting Index moves the logit by 0.141, incumbency is worth 1.26 logit, or 8.9 points in index units, and an open seat is priced even at R+3. That last fact matters. An open district at R+3 would lean Republican in a neutral year, so the market expects Democrats to run several points ahead of the 2020-2024 presidential baseline, and the popular-vote brackets say much the same thing with a Democratic margin of +8.3 points on Polymarket and +8.6 on Kalshi.

Figure 3. How the market maps district baseline and incumbency to a win probability: consensus logit against the 2026 Partisan Voting Index, by incumbent party, with the three fitted lines. The slope is 0.141 per index point, incumbency is worth 1.26 logit, and an open seat is priced even at R+3.

The test the House fails

Control of a chamber is a digital option on the seat count, and its price depends on how strongly the races move together. No single seat price reveals that. Seat-count brackets do, because their prices identify the spread of the count, so we fitted a factor copula to the bracket prices, simulated 200,000 elections, and compared the simulated chance of control with the control contracts.

In the Senate the three sets of prices agree. A loading of 0.54 reproduces the brackets and gives Democrats a 62.8% chance of control, against a chamber price of 64.5%. The House is different. Its brackets select a loading of 0.085, and at that loading the seat prices give Democrats a 97.7% chance of a majority, while the control contracts trade at 90.9%: 91.5% on Polymarket, 90.6% on Kalshi, 89.6% on PredictIt. Figure 5 shows the calibration for each chamber and where the House gap opens. That gap of 6.7 points survived every variant we tried, among them heavier-tailed copulas, a weaker regional structure, a favourite-longshot correction and shrinkage toward the regression.

Figure 5. Calibrating the common factor. Left: the bracket loss against the loading for the House (blue) and the Senate (gold), with dotted lines at the optima. Right: the simulated probability of Democratic control against the loading, with the chamber-control prices as dashed lines. The brackets… — Figure 5. Calibrating the common factor. Left: the bracket loss against the loading for the House (blue) and the Senate (gold), with dotted lines at the optima. Right: the simulated probability of Democratic control against the loading, with the chamber-control prices as dashed lines. The brackets pick a House loading near 0.09, where the aggregated control probability (97.7%) lies above the chamber price (90.9%); the Senate loading of 0.54 reproduces its chamber price.

Where does the discount sit? A two-parameter reconciliation locates it. Shift every House seat by -0.18 logit and raise the loading from 0.085 to 0.13, and the brackets and the control price fit together. Under those reconciled prices the expected Democratic count falls from 239.8 to 235.5, the 90% interval widens to 214-258, and control comes out at 91.3%. Figure 6 draws the two seat-count distributions against the bracket market, and Figure 7 maps the loss over the shift and the loading. In plain terms, the chamber markets discount the seat markets by about four seats. Either the thin seat books or the deep control books priced the House better. The results will say which.

Figure 6. The House seat count the seat prices imply (blue bars, loading 0.085, mean 239.8) against the bracket market (gold, Kalshi's Democratic House seat brackets drawn as price per seat) and the chamber-consistent distribution (red step, shift -0.18 logit, loading 0.13, mean 235.5). The dashed… — Figure 6. The House seat count the seat prices imply (blue bars, loading 0.085, mean 239.8) against the bracket market (gold, Kalshi's Democratic House seat brackets drawn as price per seat) and the chamber-consistent distribution (red step, shift -0.18 logit, loading 0.13, mean 235.5). The dashed line marks 218 seats.

Figure 7. Reconciling the seat prices with the chamber markets: loss over the common logit shift (horizontal) and the loading (vertical) for the House, fitting the bracket prices and the control price together. The marked optimum is a shift of -0.18 logit with a loading of 0.13.

What can still move before the vote

Treat the control contracts as event-linked futures, and a logit-martingale model fits their daily closes well enough to say how far a price can travel in the days that remain. Not far. On Polymarket the House control price has an annual logit volatility of 1.01, on Kalshi 1.19, and at that pace the price has almost no chance of reaching one half within 13 days. Figure 10 draws the election-eve bands by chamber and venue. Senate contracts have more room, as the Polymarket Senate contract, with a volatility of 0.89, carries a much higher probability of touching one half before the vote.

Figure 10. Where the control price can go in the 13 days left: 5-25-50-75-95% bands of the election-eve price under the logit-martingale model, by chamber and venue, with the fitted annual logit volatility and the probability of touching one half.

Scoring after 3 November

Nothing here is an outcome evaluation, because the election has not happened. We treat the per-seat calls as a pre-registered forecast. Table 12 lists every Senate race with its probability and call, Table 14 does the same for governors, and the House appendix, beginning at Table 17, covers all 435 districts with their sources. After 3 November 2026 we will score them with the Brier and logarithmic scores. Snapshot addresses sit in Table 25 and the access routes in Table 26, so anyone can repeat the pull.

Who this is for: Researchers and quants who model election markets, and journalists covering the midterms.

Figures

Figure 4. The eighty House seats the market has not settled: consensus probability of a Democratic win with the 90% measurement band, blue above one half and red below; grey ticks mark the chamber-consistent value after the common shift. Labels give the incumbent's party.

Figure 8. Senate seats in the 120th Congress: the calibrated simulation (bars, loading 0.54) against the bracket market (gold, the Kalshi Republican-seat brackets mapped to Democratic seats). The dashed line marks 51 seats.

Figure 9. Governors after 2026: the calibrated simulation of Democratic governors (bars, loading 0.30) against Polymarket's Republican-governor brackets mapped to Democratic seats (gold). Expected 26.0 Democrats of 50, up from 23.

Tables

Table 1.
Venue	House races	Senate races	Governor races	National markets	Volume	Access
Polymarket	433	35	35	76	122m	Gamma + CLOB APIs
Kalshi	426	34	34	297	290m contracts	trade-api/v2
PredictIt	38	35	24	7	n/a	marketdata/all
Manifold	0	few	0	2	play money	sanity check only
Smarkets	0	0	0	2	n/a	control markets only

Table 2.
Chamber	Venue	D bid	D ask	P(D) devigged	Overround %	Volume
House	Polymarket	0.910	0.920	0.915	0.0	19.2m
House	Kalshi	0.907	0.908	0.906	0.2	62.9m
House	Predictit			0.896	1.0	n/a
House	consensus			0.909		sd(logit) 0.033
Senate	Polymarket	0.640	0.650	0.645	0.0	7.5m
Senate	Kalshi	0.640	0.650	0.645	0.0	16.3m
Senate	Predictit			0.639	4.0	n/a
Senate	consensus			0.645		sd(logit) 0.009

Table 3.
Contract	Days	Mean PM-KS (pts)	Mean abs. diff	Max abs. diff	Days > 3 pts (%)	Last 30 days
house control	440	+1.73	2.08	6.5	24	0.84
senate control	436	+1.00	1.92	16.0	22	1.40

Table 4.
Chamber	Safe D	Likely D	Tilt D	Tossup	Tilt/Likely R	Safe R
House (435)	194	28	6	11	75	121
Senate (35 up)	11	2	2	5	3	12
Governors (36)	9	10	1	2	10	4

Table 5.
Chamber	n	Constant (t)	PVI slope (t)	Incumbency (t)	Weighted R²	LOO RMSE logit / MAE prob
House	434	0.46 (7.8)	0.141 (22.6)	1.26 (13.5)	0.84	1.22 / 0.085
Senate	35	1.28 (4.7)	0.277 (7.8)	0.74 (1.8)	0.82	1.45 / 0.110
Governor	36	0.71 (2.9)	0.148 (5.3)	1.65 (4.2)	0.70	1.60 / 0.176

Table 6.
District	Incumbent	PVI	P(D) market	P(D) chamber-consistent	P(D) baseline model	Call
AZ-05	Andy Biggs (open)	R+10	0.109	0.093	0.278	Likely R
MI-01	Jack Bergman	R+11	0.110	0.093	0.087	Likely R
FL-26	Mario Díaz-Balart	R+7	0.112	0.095	0.143	Likely R
AZ-08	Abraham Hamadeh	R+8	0.113	0.097	0.127	Likely R
SC-02	Joe Wilson	R+7	0.115	0.098	0.143	Likely R
NC-05	Virginia Foxx	R+9	0.120	0.102	0.112	Likely R
GA-01	Buddy Carter (open)	R+8	0.128	0.109	0.338	Likely R
TX-32	none (open)	R+8	0.131	0.112	0.338	Likely R
GA-12	Rick Allen	R+7	0.133	0.114	0.143	Likely R
NY-01	Nick LaLota	R+4	0.134	0.115	0.203	Likely R
WA-05	Michael Baumgartner	R+5	0.141	0.120	0.181	Likely R
IN-05	Victoria Spartz	R+8	0.143	0.123	0.127	Likely R
MD-01	Andy Harris	R+8	0.144	0.123	0.127	Likely R
TN-09	Steve Cohen (open)	R+9	0.144	0.123	0.307	Likely R
OK-05	Stephanie Bice	R+9	0.144	0.124	0.112	Likely R
FL-11	Daniel Webster (open)	R+7	0.145	0.124	0.370	Likely R
FL-21	Brian Mast	R+7	0.145	0.124	0.143	Likely R
NC-13	Brad Knott	R+8	0.146	0.125	0.127	Likely R
MN-08	Pete Stauber	R+7	0.156	0.133	0.143	Likely R
TX-09	none (open)	R+9	0.162	0.139	0.307	Likely R
AR-02	French Hill	R+8	0.163	0.140	0.127	Likely R
KS-02	Derek Schmidt	R+10	0.173	0.149	0.099	Likely R
NY-02	Andrew Garbarino	R+6	0.179	0.154	0.161	Likely R
NC-09	Richard Hudson	R+8	0.190	0.164	0.127	Likely R
FL-16	Vern Buchanan (open)	R+6	0.190	0.164	0.404	Likely R
NC-07	David Rouzer	R+7	0.192	0.166	0.143	Likely R
NC-03	Greg Murphy	R+6	0.195	0.169	0.161	Likely R
NE-01	Mike Flood	R+6	0.199	0.172	0.161	Likely R
FL-04	Aaron Bean	R+5	0.231	0.200	0.181	Tilt R
NJ-02	Jeff Van Drew	R+5	0.231	0.200	0.181	Tilt R
MO-02	Ann Wagner	R+4	0.245	0.213	0.203	Tilt R
MN-01	Brad Finstad	R+6	0.246	0.214	0.161	Tilt R
CO-05	Jeff Crank	R+5	0.253	0.220	0.181	Tilt R
FL-13	Anna Paulina Luna	R+6	0.253	0.220	0.161	Tilt R
CO-04	Lauren Boebert	R+9	0.257	0.224	0.112	Tilt R
AZ-02	Eli Crane	R+7	0.258	0.225	0.143	Tilt R
OH-10	Mike Turner	R+4	0.260	0.227	0.203	Tilt R
FL-07	Cory Mills (open)	R+5	0.261	0.228	0.438	Tilt R
OH-15	Mike Carey	R+5	0.275	0.241	0.181	Tilt R
NY-21	Elise Stefanik (open)	R+10	0.281	0.246	0.278	Tilt R
AL-02	Shomari Figures	R+7	0.284	0.249	0.674	Tilt R
FL-09	Darren Soto	R+8	0.289	0.254	0.643	Tilt R
CO-03	Jeff Hurd	R+5	0.298	0.261	0.181	Tilt R
TX-23	none (open)	R+7	0.299	0.262	0.370	Tilt R
NV-02	Mark Amodei (open)	R+7	0.301	0.264	0.370	Tilt R
FL-27	María Elvira Salazar	R+6	0.324	0.285	0.161	Tilt R
SC-01	Nancy Mace (open)	R+6	0.327	0.289	0.404	Tilt R
VA-05	John McGuire	R+6	0.336	0.297	0.161	Tilt R
KY-06	Andy Barr (open)	R+7	0.345	0.305	0.370	Tilt R
MT-01	Ryan Zinke (open)	R+5	0.377	0.336	0.438	Tossup
PA-01	Brian Fitzpatrick	D+1	0.390	0.348	0.341	Tossup
ME-02	Jared Golden (open)	R+4	0.393	0.351	0.473	Tossup
WI-01	Bryan Steil	R+2	0.417	0.374	0.253	Tossup
MI-04	Bill Huizenga	R+3	0.541	0.496	0.227	Tossup
FL-22	none (open)	R+4	0.557	0.513	0.473	Tossup
NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+1	0.592	0.548	0.341	Tossup
IA-02	Ashley Hinson (open)	R+4	0.595	0.551	0.473	Tossup
VA-01	Rob Wittman	R+3	0.603	0.559	0.227	Tossup
TX-35	none (open)	R+4	0.628	0.585	0.473	Tossup
MI-07	Tom Barrett	EVEN	0.640	0.597	0.310	Tossup
MI-10	John James (open)	R+3	0.681	0.641	0.509	Tilt D
FL-14	Kathy Castor	R+4	0.688	0.648	0.760	Tilt D
PA-08	Rob Bresnahan	R+4	0.713	0.675	0.203	Tilt D
OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+5	0.715	0.676	0.733	Tilt D
NC-01	Don Davis	R+5	0.718	0.680	0.733	Tilt D
WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+3	0.754	0.719	0.227	Tilt D
AZ-01	David Schweikert (open)	R+1	0.802	0.772	0.579	Likely D
PA-10	Scott Perry	R+3	0.802	0.772	0.227	Likely D
IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+2	0.813	0.784	0.253	Likely D
OH-07	Max Miller	R+5	0.815	0.787	0.181	Likely D
NC-11	Chuck Edwards (open)	R+5	0.816	0.787	0.438	Likely D
TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	R+3	0.824	0.796	0.785	Likely D
CO-08	Gabe Evans	EVEN	0.833	0.807	0.310	Likely D
AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	EVEN	0.851	0.827	0.310	Likely D
TX-15	Monica De La Cruz	R+7	0.852	0.827	0.143	Likely D
PA-07	Ryan Mackenzie	R+1	0.862	0.839	0.280	Likely D
CA-22	David Valadao	D+1	0.867	0.845	0.341	Likely D
VA-02	Jen Kiggans	EVEN	0.875	0.854	0.310	Likely D
FL-25	Jared Moskowitz	R+3	0.888	0.869	0.785	Likely D
IA-01	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	R+4	0.897	0.879	0.203	Likely D

Table 7.
Quantity	Mean	Median	50% band	90% band	P(D control) sim	P(D control) market
House D seats	239.8	240	232-247	221-259	97.7	90.9
House, chamber-consistent	235.5	235	227-244	214-258	91.3	90.9
Senate D seats (of 100)	51.3	51	49-53	46-56	62.8	64.5
Senate, chamber-consistent	51.5	52		47-56	65.1	64.5
Governors, D (of 50)	26.0	26	24-28	21-30	59.2 (≥26)	n/a

Table 8.
Chamber	Expected D seats	P(control) independent	P(control) calibrated	Chamber price	Gap (pts)	Markov band
House	239.8	100.0	97.7	90.9	+6.7	[10.5, 100.0]
Senate	17.32 of 35	70.0	62.8	64.5	-1.7	[7.0, 100.0]

Table 9.
Chamber	Dimension	Value	P(D control)	90% seats	Expected D	Bracket loss
House	loading	0.000	100.0	232-248
House	loading	0.085	97.6	222-258
House	loading	0.100	96.9	220-260
House	loading	0.200	92.1	214-267
House	loading	0.300	88.5	208-273
House	loading	0.500	84.1	200-283
House	loading	0.700	81.9	193-291
House	favourite-longshot k	1.0	97.6	222-258	239.8
House	favourite-longshot k	1.1	98.7	224-256	239.4
House	favourite-longshot k	1.2	99.4	225-253	239.0
House	favourite-longshot k	1.3	99.7	226-251	238.5
House	copula	t5	97.1	222-260	239.8	0.0118
House	copula	t3	97.2	224-260	239.8	0.0142
House	copula	regionhalf	95.8	219-261	239.9	0.0164
House	copula	regionzero	94.1	216-264	239.8	0.0212
House	shrink to baseline	w=0.994	97.6	221-258	239.8
Senate	loading	0.000	70.0	49-54
Senate	loading	0.100	67.5	48-54
Senate	loading	0.200	65.7	48-55
Senate	loading	0.300	64.5	47-55
Senate	loading	0.500	63.0	47-56
Senate	loading	0.540	62.9	46-56
Senate	loading	0.700	62.4	46-56
Senate	favourite-longshot k	1.0	62.9	46-56	17.32 up
Senate	favourite-longshot k	1.1	64.7	47-56	17.37 up
Senate	favourite-longshot k	1.2	66.5	47-55	17.41 up
Senate	favourite-longshot k	1.3	68.0	48-55	17.45 up

Table 10.
Venue	P(D House)	P(D Senate)	P(D Sen.), D House	P(D Sen.), R House	Corr.
Polymarket	90.6	64.2	69.8	10.1	0.36
Kalshi	90.3	64.5	70.9	5.6	0.40

Table 11.
D margin bracket (pts)	Price (%)
-10 to -6	0.9
-6 to -4	1.5
-4 to -2	2.0
-2 to -0	1.7
+0 to +2	3.0
+2 to +4	4.1
+4 to +6	7.1
+6 to +8	18.4
+8 to +10	26.9
+10 to +12	18.4
+12 to +14	10.1
+14 to +16	2.9
+16 to +20	2.9

Table 12.
Race	Incumbent	PVI	P(D)	90% band	Call	Venues
IL	Dick Durbin (open)	D+6	0.989	0.983-0.992	Safe D	3
CO	John Hickenlooper	D+6	0.988	0.982-0.993	Safe D	3
RI	Jack Reed	D+8	0.984	0.979-0.987	Safe D	3
MA	Ed Markey	D+14	0.982	0.980-0.984	Safe D	2
OR	Jeff Merkley	D+8	0.981	0.976-0.986	Safe D	3
VA	Mark Warner	D+3	0.980	0.976-0.983	Safe D	3
DE	Chris Coons	D+8	0.977	0.970-0.982	Safe D	3
NM	Ben Ray Luján	D+4	0.977	0.971-0.982	Safe D	3
NJ	Cory Booker	D+4	0.967	0.960-0.972	Safe D	3
NC	Thom Tillis (open)	R+1	0.959	0.956-0.962	Safe D	3
GA	Jon Ossoff	R+1	0.955	0.953-0.958	Safe D	3
NH	Jeanne Shaheen (open)	D+2	0.899	0.891-0.907	Likely D	3
MN	Tina Smith (open)	D+3	0.874	0.870-0.879	Likely D	3
AK	Dan Sullivan	R+6	0.754	0.745-0.763	Tilt D	2
MI	Gary Peters (open)	EVEN	0.689	0.682-0.696	Tilt D	3
OH-special	Jon Husted (open)	R+5	0.645	0.640-0.650	Tossup	3
ME	Susan Collins	D+4	0.641	0.636-0.646	Tossup	3
TX	John Cornyn (open)	R+6	0.635	0.631-0.639	Tossup	3
IA	Joni Ernst (open)	R+6	0.425	0.419-0.430	Tossup	3
KS	Roger Marshall	R+8	0.392	0.385-0.399	Tossup	3
SC	Darline Graham (open)	R+8	0.178	0.173-0.184	Likely R	3
MS	Cindy Hyde-Smith	R+11	0.102	0.097-0.107	Likely R	3
FL-special	Ashley Moody (open)	R+5	0.100	0.093-0.108	Likely R	3
AR	Tom Cotton	R+15	0.050	0.046-0.053	Safe R	3
LA	Bill Cassidy (open)	R+11	0.044	0.028-0.069	Safe R	3
TN	Bill Hagerty	R+14	0.042	0.041-0.044	Safe R	3
KY	Mitch McConnell (open)	R+15	0.030	0.022-0.041	Safe R	2
OK	Alan Armstrong (open)	R+17	0.026	0.021-0.033	Safe R	3
AL	Tommy Tuberville (open)	R+15	0.019	0.013-0.027	Safe R	3
WV	Shelley Moore Capito	R+21	0.015	0.011-0.019	Safe R	3
WY	Cynthia Lummis (open)	R+23	0.009	0.006-0.013	Safe R	3
MT	Steve Daines (open)	R+10	0.005	0.003-0.007	Safe R	3
ID	Jim Risch	R+18	0.004	0.002-0.006	Safe R	3
SD	Mike Rounds	R+15	0.003	0.002-0.006	Safe R	3
NE	Pete Ricketts	R+10	0.003	0.002-0.003	Safe R	3

Table 13.
Race	P(D wins)	P(ctrl), D wins	P(ctrl), D loses	Swing (pts)
MN	0.874	69.1	19.0	50.1
NH	0.899	67.8	18.6	49.2
MI	0.689	76.9	31.6	45.3
OH-special	0.645	78.5	34.4	44.1
AK	0.754	73.6	29.8	43.8
TX	0.635	78.5	35.5	43.0
ME	0.641	78.2	35.2	43.0
IA	0.425	86.3	45.4	40.9
KS	0.392	87.4	46.8	40.5
SC	0.178	92.7	56.4	36.3

Table 14.
State	Governor	Party	P(D)	90% band	Call	Venues
HI	Josh Green	D	0.988	0.979-0.993	Safe D	2
RI	Dan McKee (open)	D	0.979	0.960-0.989	Safe D	3
MD	Wes Moore	D	0.977	0.969-0.982	Safe D	3
PA	Josh Shapiro	D	0.970	0.966-0.974	Safe D	3
CO	Jared Polis (open)	D	0.966	0.964-0.968	Safe D	3
CT	Ned Lamont	D	0.966	0.962-0.969	Safe D	3
CA	Gavin Newsom (open)	D	0.964	0.962-0.966	Safe D	1
IL	JB Pritzker	D	0.963	0.961-0.966	Safe D	2
MA	Maura Healey	D	0.961	0.959-0.963	Safe D	3
ME	Janet Mills (open)	D	0.950	0.941-0.957	Likely D	2
MN	Tim Walz (open)	D	0.948	0.943-0.954	Likely D	3
NY	Kathy Hochul	D	0.945	0.940-0.950	Likely D	3
NM	Michelle Lujan Grisham (open)	D	0.941	0.930-0.950	Likely D	3
MI	Gretchen Whitmer (open)	D	0.922	0.917-0.926	Likely D	3
AZ	Katie Hobbs	D	0.913	0.904-0.922	Likely D	3
IA	Kim Reynolds (open)	R	0.869	0.861-0.877	Likely D	3
OR	Tina Kotek	D	0.816	0.812-0.821	Likely D	2
AK	Mike Dunleavy (open)	R	0.815	0.810-0.820	Likely D	1
WI	Tony Evers (open)	D	0.809	0.802-0.816	Likely D	3
OH	Mike DeWine (open)	R	0.771	0.761-0.780	Tilt D	3
NV	Joe Lombardo	R	0.578	0.573-0.584	Tossup	3
GA	Brian Kemp (open)	R	0.509	0.501-0.516	Tossup	3
TX	Greg Abbott	R	0.280	0.272-0.288	Tilt R	3
VT	Phil Scott	R	0.241	0.237-0.246	Tilt R	3
KS	Laura Kelly (open)	D	0.236	0.229-0.243	Tilt R	2
FL	Ron DeSantis (open)	R	0.209	0.201-0.217	Tilt R	3
NE	Jim Pillen	R	0.126	0.087-0.179	Likely R	3
OK	Kevin Stitt (open)	R	0.111	0.105-0.117	Likely R	2
SC	Henry McMaster (open)	R	0.065	0.060-0.070	Likely R	2
TN	Bill Lee (open)	R	0.052	0.049-0.057	Likely R	2
NH	Kelly Ayotte	R	0.052	0.046-0.059	Likely R	1
AL	Kay Ivey (open)	R	0.051	0.040-0.064	Likely R	3
AR	Sarah Huckabee Sanders	R	0.023	0.017-0.030	Safe R	2
ID	Brad Little	R	0.022	0.017-0.029	Safe R	2
SD	Larry Rhoden	R	0.021	0.016-0.028	Safe R	2
WY	Mark Gordon (open)	R	0.011	0.006-0.017	Safe R	2

Table 15.
Contract	Days	σ (logit/yr)	σ last 30d	P(touch 1/2)	Election-eve 90% band	Funding /yr
House, Polymarket	442	1.01	1.09	1.1e-35	0.887-0.936	-3.3%
House, Kalshi	655	1.19	0.96	9.6e-24	0.869-0.933	-4.9%
Senate, Polymarket	438	0.89	1.14	4.0e-04	0.579-0.706	-2.6%
Senate, Kalshi	620	0.87	1.15	2.8e-04	0.581-0.704	-2.5%

Table 16.
Chamber and party	Mean	Median	50% interval	80% interval	90% interval	P(majority) %
House, Democrats	239.8	240	232-247	226-254	221-259	97.7
House, Republicans	195.0	195			176-213	2.3
House, Democrats, chamber-consistent	235.5	235	227-244	219-252	214-258	91.3
Senate, Democrats	51.3	51	49-53	48-55	46-56	62.8
Senate, Republicans	48.6	49	47-50	45-52	44-54	25.0
Governors, Democrats	26.0	26	24-28	22-30	21-30	59.2
Governors, Republicans	24.0	24	22-26	20-28	19-29	27.6

Table 17.
District	Incumbent	PVI	P(D)	90% band	Call	Source
AK-AL	open	R+6	0.017	0.013-0.021	Safe R	market
AL-01	open	R+17	0.025	0.023-0.027	Safe R	market
AL-02	Shomari Figures	R+7	0.284	0.270-0.299	Tilt R	market
AL-03	Mike Rogers	R+23	0.006	0.003-0.010	Safe R	market
AL-04	Robert Aderholt	R+33	0.003	0.002-0.006	Safe R	market
AL-05	Dale Strong	R+15	0.043	0.035-0.053	Safe R	market
AL-06	Gary Palmer	R+17	0.019	0.011-0.030	Safe R	market
AL-07	Terri Sewell	D+10	0.991	0.986-0.995	Safe D	market
AR-01	Rick Crawford	R+23	0.020	0.014-0.030	Safe R	market
AR-02	French Hill	R+8	0.163	0.158-0.169	Likely R	market
AR-03	Steve Womack	R+13	0.034	0.023-0.050	Safe R	market
AR-04	Bruce Westerman	R+20	0.024	0.017-0.035	Safe R	market
AZ-01	David Schweikert	R+1	0.802	0.790-0.813	Likely D	market
AZ-02	Eli Crane	R+7	0.258	0.248-0.267	Tilt R	market
AZ-03	Yassamin Ansari	D+22	0.988	0.980-0.993	Safe D	market
AZ-04	Greg Stanton	D+4	0.955	0.950-0.960	Safe D	market
AZ-05	Andy Biggs	R+10	0.109	0.101-0.118	Likely R	market
AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	EVEN	0.851	0.839-0.862	Likely D	market
AZ-07	Adelita Grijalva	D+13	0.997	0.977-1.000	Safe D	market
AZ-08	Abraham Hamadeh	R+8	0.113	0.108-0.119	Likely R	market
AZ-09	Paul Gosar	R+15	0.039	0.032-0.048	Safe R	market
CA-01	James Gallagher	D+7	0.965	0.958-0.971	Safe D	market
CA-02	Jared Huffman	D+13	0.997	0.754-1.000	Safe D	market
CA-03	Ami Bera	D+6	0.967	0.962-0.972	Safe D	market
CA-04	Mike Thompson	D+8	0.991	0.986-0.995	Safe D	market
CA-05	Tom McClintock	R+10	0.062	0.058-0.066	Likely R	market
CA-06	Kevin Kiley	D+5	0.991	0.983-0.995	Safe D	market
CA-07	Doris Matsui	D+7	0.985	0.977-0.991	Safe D	market
CA-08	John Garamendi	D+19	0.967	0.955-0.976	Safe D	market
CA-09	Josh Harder	D+8	0.959	0.953-0.964	Safe D	market
CA-10	Mark DeSaulnier	D+18	0.960	0.948-0.969	Safe D	market
CA-11	Nancy Pelosi	D+36	0.993	0.973-0.999	Safe D	market
CA-12	Lateefah Simon	D+39	0.978	0.977-0.979	Safe D	market
CA-13	Adam Gray	D+2	0.933	0.864-0.969	Likely D	market
CA-14	Aisha Wahab	D+19	0.998	0.991-0.999	Safe D	market
CA-15	Kevin Mullin	D+26	0.980	0.970-0.987	Safe D	market
CA-16	Sam Liccardo	D+25	0.981	0.975-0.985	Safe D	market
CA-17	Ro Khanna	D+21	0.979	0.966-0.987	Safe D	market
CA-18	Zoe Lofgren	D+16	0.978	0.970-0.983	Safe D	market
CA-19	Jimmy Panetta	D+18	0.983	0.974-0.989	Safe D	market
CA-20	Vince Fong	R+16	0.021	0.014-0.032	Safe R	market
CA-21	Jim Costa	D+5	0.955	0.948-0.962	Safe D	market
CA-22	David Valadao	D+1	0.867	0.774-0.925	Likely D	market
CA-23	Jay Obernolte	R+9	0.014	0.009-0.021	Safe R	market
CA-24	Salud Carbajal	D+13	0.980	0.976-0.983	Safe D	market
CA-25	Raul Ruiz	D+4	0.961	0.948-0.970	Safe D	market
CA-26	Julia Brownley	D+9	0.978	0.969-0.984	Safe D	market
CA-27	George T. Whitesides	D+6	0.968	0.968-0.969	Safe D	market
CA-28	Judy Chu	D+14	0.983	0.974-0.989	Safe D	market
CA-29	Luz Rivas	D+19	0.967	0.952-0.978	Safe D	market
CA-30	Laura Friedman	D+21	0.974	0.963-0.982	Safe D	market
CA-31	Gil Cisneros	D+8	0.970	0.961-0.976	Safe D	market
CA-32	Brad Sherman	D+14	0.982	0.975-0.988	Safe D	market
CA-33	Pete Aguilar	D+7	0.961	0.950-0.970	Safe D	market
CA-34	Jimmy Gomez	D+28	0.998	0.710-1.000	Safe D	market
CA-35	Norma Torres	D+6	0.997	0.904-1.000	Safe D	market
CA-36	Ted Lieu	D+21	0.975	0.960-0.984	Safe D	market
CA-37	Sydney Kamlager-Dove	D+33	0.968	0.950-0.980	Safe D	market
CA-38	open	D+8	0.992	0.962-0.999	Safe D	market
CA-39	Mark Takano	D+7	0.967	0.951-0.977	Safe D	market

Table 18.
District	Incumbent	PVI	P(D)	90% band	Call	Source
CA-40	Young Kim	R+6	0.001	0.001-0.001	Safe R	same-part
CA-41	Linda Sánchez	D+9	0.958	0.953-0.962	Safe D	market
CA-42	Robert Garcia	D+8	0.977	0.964-0.985	Safe D	market
CA-43	Maxine Waters	D+27	0.965	0.957-0.972	Safe D	market
CA-44	Nanette Barragán	D+20	0.983	0.964-0.992	Safe D	market
CA-45	Derek Tran	D+3	0.931	0.921-0.939	Likely D	market
CA-46	Lou Correa	D+10	0.966	0.950-0.977	Safe D	market
CA-47	Dave Min	D+6	0.969	0.965-0.973	Safe D	market
CA-48	Darrell Issa	D+2	0.907	0.822-0.954	Likely D	market
CA-49	Mike Levin	D+7	0.967	0.959-0.974	Safe D	market
CA-50	Scott Peters	D+10	0.970	0.962-0.976	Safe D	market
CA-51	Sara Jacobs	D+10	0.979	0.972-0.984	Safe D	market
CA-52	Juan Vargas	D+11	0.973	0.967-0.978	Safe D	market
CO-01	Diana DeGette	D+29	0.985	0.971-0.992	Safe D	market
CO-02	Joe Neguse	D+20	0.982	0.980-0.984	Safe D	market
CO-03	Jeff Hurd	R+5	0.298	0.292-0.304	Tilt R	market
CO-04	Lauren Boebert	R+9	0.257	0.251-0.264	Tilt R	market
CO-05	Jeff Crank	R+5	0.253	0.243-0.262	Tilt R	market
CO-06	Jason Crow	D+11	0.978	0.968-0.984	Safe D	market
CO-07	Brittany Pettersen	D+8	0.976	0.966-0.982	Safe D	market
CO-08	Gabe Evans	EVEN	0.833	0.824-0.842	Likely D	market
CT-01	John B. Larson	D+12	0.966	0.950-0.977	Safe D	market
CT-02	Joe Courtney	D+4	0.978	0.966-0.986	Safe D	market
CT-03	Rosa DeLauro	D+8	0.966	0.960-0.972	Safe D	market
CT-04	Jim Himes	D+13	0.978	0.966-0.986	Safe D	market
CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D+3	0.962	0.952-0.971	Safe D	market
DE-AL	Sarah McBride	D+8	0.996	0.923-1.000	Safe D	market
FL-01	Jimmy Patronis	R+18	0.035	0.026-0.046	Safe R	market
FL-02	Neal Dunn	R+8	0.072	0.066-0.078	Likely R	market
FL-03	Kat Cammack	R+10	0.042	0.038-0.046	Safe R	market
FL-04	Aaron Bean	R+5	0.231	0.218-0.244	Tilt R	market
FL-05	John Rutherford	R+10	0.065	0.058-0.073	Likely R	market
FL-06	Randy Fine	R+14	0.038	0.029-0.050	Safe R	market
FL-07	Cory Mills	R+5	0.261	0.255-0.266	Tilt R	market
FL-08	Mike Haridopolos	R+8	0.044	0.040-0.048	Safe R	market
FL-09	Darren Soto	R+8	0.289	0.281-0.297	Tilt R	market
FL-10	Maxwell Frost	D+13	0.983	0.973-0.989	Safe D	market
FL-11	Daniel Webster	R+7	0.145	0.135-0.155	Likely R	market
FL-12	Gus Bilirakis	R+7	0.092	0.080-0.107	Likely R	market
FL-13	Anna Paulina Luna	R+6	0.253	0.248-0.258	Tilt R	market
FL-14	Kathy Castor	R+4	0.688	0.676-0.700	Tilt D	market
FL-15	Laurel Lee	R+9	0.046	0.040-0.054	Safe R	market
FL-16	Vern Buchanan	R+6	0.190	0.186-0.195	Likely R	market
FL-17	Greg Steube	R+10	0.051	0.044-0.059	Likely R	market
FL-18	Scott Franklin	R+8	0.046	0.042-0.051	Safe R	market
FL-19	Byron Donalds	R+14	0.045	0.041-0.050	Safe R	market
FL-20	open	D+20	0.990	0.983-0.994	Safe D	market
FL-21	Brian Mast	R+7	0.145	0.139-0.152	Likely R	market
FL-22	open	R+4	0.557	0.547-0.568	Tossup	market
FL-23	Lois Frankel	D+9	0.952	0.946-0.957	Safe D	market
FL-24	Frederica Wilson	D+22	0.983	0.973-0.989	Safe D	market
FL-25	Jared Moskowitz	R+3	0.888	0.856-0.913	Likely D	market
FL-26	Mario Díaz-Balart	R+7	0.112	0.102-0.123	Likely R	market
FL-27	María Elvira Salazar	R+6	0.324	0.318-0.329	Tilt R	market
FL-28	Carlos A. Giménez	R+10	0.058	0.052-0.064	Likely R	market
GA-01	Buddy Carter	R+8	0.128	0.122-0.134	Likely R	market
GA-02	Sanford Bishop	D+4	0.971	0.966-0.976	Safe D	market
GA-03	Brian Jack	R+15	0.042	0.037-0.049	Safe R	market
GA-04	Hank Johnson	D+27	0.984	0.978-0.988	Safe D	market
GA-05	Nikema Williams	D+36	0.997	0.971-1.000	Safe D	market

Table 19.
District	Incumbent	PVI	P(D)	90% band	Call	Source
GA-06	Lucy McBath	D+25	0.980	0.973-0.986	Safe D	market
GA-07	Rich McCormick	R+11	0.078	0.073-0.085	Likely R	market
GA-08	Austin Scott	R+15	0.021	0.014-0.031	Safe R	market
GA-09	Andrew Clyde	R+17	0.029	0.023-0.035	Safe R	market
GA-10	Mike Collins	R+11	0.024	0.019-0.030	Safe R	market
GA-11	Barry Loudermilk	R+12	0.038	0.033-0.043	Safe R	market
GA-12	Rick Allen	R+7	0.133	0.123-0.144	Likely R	market
GA-13	Everton Blair	D+21	0.978	0.970-0.984	Safe D	market
GA-14	Clay Fuller	R+19	0.040	0.031-0.050	Safe R	market
HI-01	Ed Case	D+13	0.973	0.953-0.985	Safe D	market
HI-02	Jill Tokuda	D+12	0.961	0.948-0.971	Safe D	market
IA-01	Mariannette Miller-Mee	R+4	0.897	0.884-0.909	Likely D	market
IA-02	Ashley Hinson	R+4	0.595	0.544-0.643	Tossup	market
IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+2	0.813	0.794-0.831	Likely D	market
IA-04	Randy Feenstra	R+15	0.007	0.003-0.017	Safe R	market
ID-01	Russ Fulcher	R+22	0.023	0.015-0.035	Safe R	market
ID-02	Mike Simpson	R+13	0.050	0.042-0.060	Likely R	market
IL-01	Jonathan Jackson	D+18	0.965	0.955-0.972	Safe D	market
IL-02	Robin Kelly	D+18	0.984	0.975-0.989	Safe D	market
IL-03	Delia Ramirez	D+17	0.977	0.966-0.984	Safe D	market
IL-04	Chuy García	D+17	0.985	0.975-0.991	Safe D	market
IL-05	Mike Quigley	D+19	0.963	0.957-0.968	Safe D	market
IL-06	Sean Casten	D+3	0.975	0.965-0.982	Safe D	market
IL-07	Danny Davis	D+34	0.985	0.972-0.992	Safe D	market
IL-08	Raja Krishnamoorthi	D+5	0.955	0.944-0.963	Safe D	market
IL-09	Jan Schakowsky	D+19	0.973	0.959-0.982	Safe D	market
IL-10	Brad Schneider	D+12	0.980	0.976-0.983	Safe D	market
IL-11	Bill Foster	D+6	0.974	0.965-0.980	Safe D	market
IL-12	Mike Bost	R+22	0.024	0.017-0.034	Safe R	market
IL-13	Nikki Budzinski	D+5	0.967	0.955-0.975	Safe D	market
IL-14	Lauren Underwood	D+3	0.976	0.962-0.985	Safe D	market
IL-15	Mary Miller	R+20	0.035	0.025-0.050	Safe R	market
IL-16	Darin LaHood	R+11	0.045	0.038-0.053	Safe R	market
IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D+3	0.965	0.959-0.970	Safe D	market
IN-01	Frank J. Mrvan	D+1	0.982	0.973-0.988	Safe D	market
IN-02	Rudy Yakym	R+13	0.033	0.024-0.046	Safe R	market
IN-03	Marlin Stutzman	R+16	0.044	0.039-0.050	Safe R	market
IN-04	Jim Baird	R+15	0.048	0.042-0.055	Safe R	market
IN-05	Victoria Spartz	R+8	0.143	0.135-0.153	Likely R	market
IN-06	Jefferson Shreve	R+16	0.037	0.030-0.045	Safe R	market
IN-07	André Carson	D+21	0.993	0.968-0.999	Safe D	market
IN-08	Mark Messmer	R+18	0.039	0.029-0.051	Safe R	market
IN-09	Erin Houchin	R+15	0.019	0.013-0.029	Safe R	market
KS-01	Tracey Mann	R+16	0.015	0.007-0.031	Safe R	market
KS-02	Derek Schmidt	R+10	0.173	0.155-0.193	Likely R	market
KS-03	Sharice Davids	D+2	0.951	0.943-0.958	Safe D	market
KS-04	Ron Estes	R+12	0.037	0.034-0.042	Safe R	market
KY-01	James Comer	R+23	0.028	0.021-0.038	Safe R	market
KY-02	Brett Guthrie	R+20	0.037	0.031-0.045	Safe R	market
KY-03	Morgan McGarvey	D+10	0.979	0.972-0.984	Safe D	market
KY-04	Thomas Massie	R+18	0.046	0.040-0.053	Safe R	market
KY-05	Hal Rogers	R+32	0.026	0.020-0.035	Safe R	market
KY-06	Andy Barr	R+7	0.345	0.339-0.351	Tilt R	market
LA-01	Steve Scalise	R+20	0.042	0.034-0.051	Safe R	market
LA-02	Troy Carter	D+25	0.981	0.968-0.989	Safe D	market
LA-03	Clay Higgins	R+18	0.025	0.017-0.037	Safe R	market
LA-04	Mike Johnson	R+17	0.047	0.037-0.060	Safe R	market
LA-05	Julia Letlow	R+17	0.023	0.016-0.032	Safe R	market
LA-06	Cleo Fields	R+16	0.066	0.063-0.068	Likely R	market
MA-01	Richard Neal	D+8	0.974	0.969-0.978	Safe D	market

Table 20.
District	Incumbent	PVI	P(D)	90% band	Call	Source
MA-02	Jim McGovern	D+13	0.965	0.956-0.971	Safe D	market
MA-03	Lori Trahan	D+11	0.975	0.961-0.984	Safe D	market
MA-04	Jake Auchincloss	D+11	0.984	0.982-0.986	Safe D	market
MA-05	Katherine Clark	D+24	0.981	0.976-0.985	Safe D	market
MA-06	Seth Moulton	D+11	0.975	0.965-0.981	Safe D	market
MA-07	Ayanna Pressley	D+34	0.982	0.973-0.989	Safe D	market
MA-08	Stephen Lynch	D+15	0.982	0.967-0.991	Safe D	market
MA-09	Bill Keating	D+6	0.977	0.969-0.983	Safe D	market
MD-01	Andy Harris	R+8	0.144	0.132-0.156	Likely R	market
MD-02	Johnny Olszewski	D+10	0.964	0.951-0.973	Safe D	market
MD-03	Sarah Elfreth	D+12	0.973	0.955-0.984	Safe D	market
MD-04	Glenn Ivey	D+39	0.995	0.991-0.998	Safe D	market
MD-05	Steny Hoyer	D+17	0.976	0.965-0.983	Safe D	market
MD-06	April McClain Delaney	D+3	0.967	0.958-0.974	Safe D	market
MD-07	Kweisi Mfume	D+31	0.981	0.978-0.983	Safe D	market
MD-08	Jamie Raskin	D+30	0.972	0.961-0.981	Safe D	market
ME-01	Chellie Pingree	D+11	0.977	0.966-0.985	Safe D	market
ME-02	Jared Golden	R+4	0.393	0.362-0.424	Tossup	market
MI-01	Jack Bergman	R+11	0.110	0.105-0.115	Likely R	market
MI-02	John Moolenaar	R+15	0.010	0.006-0.016	Safe R	market
MI-03	Hillary Scholten	D+4	0.957	0.949-0.964	Safe D	market
MI-04	Bill Huizenga	R+3	0.541	0.476-0.604	Tossup	market
MI-05	Tim Walberg	R+13	0.047	0.040-0.054	Safe R	market
MI-06	Debbie Dingell	D+12	0.980	0.962-0.990	Safe D	market
MI-07	Tom Barrett	EVEN	0.640	0.629-0.650	Tossup	market
MI-08	Kristen McDonald Rivet	R+1	0.953	0.949-0.956	Safe D	market
MI-09	Lisa McClain	R+16	0.040	0.033-0.049	Safe R	market
MI-10	John James	R+3	0.681	0.641-0.719	Tilt D	market
MI-11	Haley Stevens	D+9	0.975	0.966-0.982	Safe D	market
MI-12	Rashida Tlaib	D+21	0.994	0.987-0.997	Safe D	market
MI-13	Shri Thanedar	D+22	0.997	0.976-1.000	Safe D	market
MN-01	Brad Finstad	R+6	0.246	0.239-0.254	Tilt R	market
MN-02	Angie Craig	D+3	0.962	0.960-0.963	Safe D	market
MN-03	Kelly Morrison	D+11	0.978	0.972-0.983	Safe D	market
MN-04	Betty McCollum	D+18	0.969	0.961-0.975	Safe D	market
MN-05	Ilhan Omar	D+32	0.945	0.940-0.950	Likely D	market
MN-06	Tom Emmer	R+10	0.025	0.018-0.034	Safe R	market
MN-07	Michelle Fischbach	R+18	0.039	0.027-0.055	Safe R	market
MN-08	Pete Stauber	R+7	0.156	0.145-0.167	Likely R	market
MO-01	Wesley Bell	D+29	0.986	0.980-0.990	Safe D	market
MO-02	Ann Wagner	R+4	0.245	0.242-0.248	Tilt R	market
MO-03	Bob Onder	R+13	0.025	0.020-0.030	Safe R	market
MO-04	Mark Alford	R+21	0.031	0.026-0.037	Safe R	market
MO-05	Emanuel Cleaver	D+12	0.971	0.965-0.976	Safe D	market
MO-06	Sam Graves	R+19	0.043	0.032-0.056	Safe R	market
MO-07	Eric Burlison	R+21	0.027	0.018-0.040	Safe R	market
MO-08	Jason Smith	R+27	0.021	0.012-0.035	Safe R	market
MS-01	Trent Kelly	R+18	0.037	0.030-0.045	Safe R	market
MS-02	Bennie Thompson	D+11	0.976	0.971-0.981	Safe D	market
MS-03	Michael Guest	R+14	0.003	0.002-0.007	Safe R	market
MS-04	Mike Ezell	R+21	0.035	0.024-0.052	Safe R	market
MT-01	Ryan Zinke	R+5	0.377	0.366-0.388	Tossup	market
MT-02	Troy Downing	R+15	0.018	0.011-0.031	Safe R	market
NC-01	Don Davis	R+5	0.718	0.702-0.733	Tilt D	market
NC-02	Deborah Ross	D+17	0.988	0.984-0.991	Safe D	market
NC-03	Greg Murphy	R+6	0.195	0.192-0.199	Likely R	market
NC-04	Valerie Foushee	D+23	0.967	0.952-0.978	Safe D	market
NC-05	Virginia Foxx	R+9	0.120	0.115-0.124	Likely R	market
NC-06	Addison McDowell	R+9	0.097	0.093-0.101	Likely R	market
NC-07	David Rouzer	R+7	0.192	0.183-0.201	Likely R	market

Table 21.
District	Incumbent	PVI	P(D)	90% band	Call	Source
NC-08	Mark Harris	R+10	0.039	0.034-0.044	Safe R	market
NC-09	Richard Hudson	R+8	0.190	0.183-0.197	Likely R	market
NC-10	Pat Harrigan	R+9	0.043	0.036-0.051	Safe R	market
NC-11	Chuck Edwards	R+5	0.816	0.798-0.832	Likely D	market
NC-12	Alma Adams	D+24	0.979	0.961-0.989	Safe D	market
NC-13	Brad Knott	R+8	0.146	0.140-0.152	Likely R	market
NC-14	Tim Moore	R+8	0.098	0.090-0.106	Likely R	market
ND-AL	Julie Fedorchak	R+18	0.025	0.018-0.034	Safe R	market
NE-01	Mike Flood	R+6	0.199	0.186-0.213	Likely R	market
NE-02	Don Bacon	D+3	0.945	0.930-0.957	Likely D	market
NE-03	Adrian Smith	R+27	0.014	0.008-0.023	Safe R	market
NH-01	Chris Pappas	D+2	0.963	0.962-0.965	Safe D	market
NH-02	Maggie Goodlander	D+2	0.969	0.960-0.976	Safe D	market
NJ-01	Donald Norcross	D+10	0.969	0.961-0.976	Safe D	market
NJ-02	Jeff Van Drew	R+5	0.231	0.224-0.238	Tilt R	market
NJ-03	Herb Conaway	D+5	0.981	0.977-0.984	Safe D	market
NJ-04	Chris Smith	R+14	0.022	0.015-0.031	Safe R	market
NJ-05	Josh Gottheimer	D+2	0.984	0.973-0.990	Safe D	market
NJ-06	Frank Pallone	D+5	0.983	0.966-0.992	Safe D	market
NJ-07	Thomas Kean Jr.	EVEN	0.922	0.911-0.932	Likely D	market
NJ-08	Rob Menendez	D+15	0.983	0.978-0.987	Safe D	market
NJ-09	Nellie Pou	D+2	0.977	0.963-0.986	Safe D	market
NJ-10	LaMonica McIver	D+27	0.981	0.970-0.988	Safe D	market
NJ-11	Analilia Mejia	D+5	0.965	0.958-0.971	Safe D	market
NJ-12	Bonnie Watson Coleman	D+13	0.988	0.980-0.993	Safe D	market
NM-01	Melanie Stansbury	D+7	0.975	0.964-0.983	Safe D	market
NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	EVEN	0.915	0.907-0.922	Likely D	market
NM-03	Teresa Leger Fernandez	D+3	0.969	0.960-0.977	Safe D	market
NV-01	Dina Titus	D+2	0.958	0.954-0.963	Safe D	market
NV-02	Mark Amodei	R+7	0.301	0.295-0.306	Tilt R	market
NV-03	Susie Lee	D+1	0.925	0.825-0.970	Likely D	market
NV-04	Steven Horsford	D+2	0.962	0.954-0.968	Safe D	market
NY-01	Nick LaLota	R+4	0.134	0.121-0.148	Likely R	market
NY-02	Andrew Garbarino	R+6	0.179	0.169-0.189	Likely R	market
NY-03	Tom Suozzi	EVEN	0.901	0.839-0.941	Likely D	market
NY-04	Laura Gillen	D+2	0.934	0.926-0.941	Likely D	market
NY-05	Gregory Meeks	D+24	0.987	0.968-0.995	Safe D	market
NY-06	Grace Meng	D+6	0.997	0.911-1.000	Safe D	market
NY-07	Nydia Velázquez	D+25	0.991	0.968-0.998	Safe D	market
NY-08	Hakeem Jeffries	D+24	0.974	0.965-0.981	Safe D	market
NY-09	Yvette Clarke	D+22	0.978	0.971-0.984	Safe D	market
NY-10	Dan Goldman	D+32	0.996	0.990-0.998	Safe D	market
NY-11	Nicole Malliotakis	R+10	0.048	0.042-0.054	Safe R	market
NY-12	Jerry Nadler	D+33	0.993	0.970-0.999	Safe D	market
NY-13	Adriano Espaillat	D+32	0.972	0.964-0.979	Safe D	market
NY-14	Alexandria Ocasio-Cort	D+19	0.975	0.969-0.980	Safe D	market
NY-15	Ritchie Torres	D+27	0.981	0.977-0.985	Safe D	market
NY-16	George Latimer	D+18	0.976	0.956-0.987	Safe D	market
NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+1	0.592	0.579-0.606	Tossup	market
NY-18	Pat Ryan	D+2	0.957	0.950-0.963	Safe D	market
NY-19	Josh Riley	D+1	0.971	0.966-0.976	Safe D	market
NY-20	Paul Tonko	D+8	0.974	0.971-0.977	Safe D	market
NY-21	Elise Stefanik	R+10	0.281	0.272-0.290	Tilt R	market
NY-22	John Mannion	D+4	0.963	0.956-0.970	Safe D	market
NY-23	Nick Langworthy	R+10	0.024	0.021-0.026	Safe R	market
NY-24	Claudia Tenney	R+11	0.017	0.013-0.024	Safe R	market
NY-25	Joseph Morelle	D+10	0.977	0.973-0.981	Safe D	market
NY-26	Tim Kennedy	D+11	0.973	0.965-0.979	Safe D	market
OH-01	Greg Landsman	R+1	0.945	0.924-0.961	Likely D	market
OH-02	David Taylor	R+21	0.015	0.011-0.022	Safe R	market

Table 22.
District	Incumbent	PVI	P(D)	90% band	Call	Source
OH-03	Joyce Beatty	D+21	0.978	0.962-0.987	Safe D	market
OH-04	Jim Jordan	R+21	0.046	0.037-0.057	Safe R	market
OH-05	Bob Latta	R+12	0.043	0.037-0.049	Safe R	market
OH-06	Michael Rulli	R+17	0.028	0.023-0.035	Safe R	market
OH-07	Max Miller	R+5	0.815	0.758-0.862	Likely D	market
OH-08	Warren Davidson	R+8	0.064	0.059-0.070	Likely R	market
OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+5	0.715	0.677-0.749	Tilt D	market
OH-10	Mike Turner	R+4	0.260	0.252-0.268	Tilt R	market
OH-11	Shontel Brown	D+28	0.986	0.973-0.993	Safe D	market
OH-12	Troy Balderson	R+15	0.049	0.043-0.055	Safe R	market
OH-13	Emilia Sykes	D+2	0.981	0.970-0.988	Safe D	market
OH-14	David Joyce	R+10	0.025	0.020-0.032	Safe R	market
OH-15	Mike Carey	R+5	0.275	0.266-0.285	Tilt R	market
OK-01	Kevin Hern	R+11	0.019	0.013-0.027	Safe R	market
OK-02	Josh Brecheen	R+28	0.022	0.015-0.032	Safe R	market
OK-03	Frank Lucas	R+23	0.024	0.015-0.039	Safe R	market
OK-04	Tom Cole	R+17	0.033	0.028-0.039	Safe R	market
OK-05	Stephanie Bice	R+9	0.144	0.134-0.155	Likely R	market
OR-01	Suzanne Bonamici	D+20	0.972	0.952-0.984	Safe D	market
OR-02	Cliff Bentz	R+14	0.043	0.037-0.050	Safe R	market
OR-03	Maxine Dexter	D+24	0.970	0.964-0.976	Safe D	market
OR-04	Val Hoyle	D+6	0.964	0.957-0.970	Safe D	market
OR-05	Janelle Bynum	D+4	0.971	0.966-0.976	Safe D	market
OR-06	Andrea Salinas	D+6	0.978	0.965-0.986	Safe D	market
PA-01	Brian Fitzpatrick	D+1	0.390	0.374-0.405	Tossup	market
PA-02	Brendan Boyle	D+19	0.983	0.977-0.988	Safe D	market
PA-03	Dwight Evans	D+40	0.987	0.976-0.993	Safe D	market
PA-04	Madeleine Dean	D+8	0.959	0.947-0.969	Safe D	market
PA-05	Mary Gay Scanlon	D+15	0.984	0.977-0.989	Safe D	market
PA-06	Chrissy Houlahan	D+6	0.975	0.964-0.983	Safe D	market
PA-07	Ryan Mackenzie	R+1	0.862	0.848-0.875	Likely D	market
PA-08	Rob Bresnahan	R+4	0.713	0.681-0.743	Tilt D	market
PA-09	Dan Meuser	R+19	0.055	0.048-0.064	Likely R	market
PA-10	Scott Perry	R+3	0.802	0.782-0.821	Likely D	market
PA-11	Lloyd Smucker	R+11	0.038	0.035-0.042	Safe R	market
PA-12	Summer Lee	D+10	0.988	0.982-0.992	Safe D	market
PA-13	John Joyce	R+23	0.037	0.026-0.052	Safe R	market
PA-14	Guy Reschenthaler	R+17	0.033	0.028-0.040	Safe R	market
PA-15	Glenn Thompson	R+19	0.052	0.043-0.063	Likely R	market
PA-16	Mike Kelly	R+11	0.047	0.041-0.055	Safe R	market
PA-17	Chris Deluzio	D+3	0.977	0.976-0.979	Safe D	market
RI-01	Gabe Amo	D+12	0.997	0.994-0.999	Safe D	market
RI-02	Seth Magaziner	D+4	0.949	0.939-0.958	Likely D	market
SC-01	Nancy Mace	R+6	0.327	0.319-0.336	Tilt R	market
SC-02	Joe Wilson	R+7	0.115	0.082-0.158	Likely R	market
SC-03	Sheri Biggs	R+21	0.015	0.011-0.022	Safe R	market
SC-04	William Timmons	R+11	0.045	0.038-0.053	Safe R	market
SC-05	Ralph Norman	R+11	0.067	0.059-0.075	Likely R	market
SC-06	Jim Clyburn	D+13	0.975	0.971-0.978	Safe D	market
SC-07	Russell Fry	R+12	0.050	0.042-0.058	Safe R	market
SD-AL	Dusty Johnson	R+15	0.044	0.039-0.050	Safe R	market
TN-01	Diana Harshbarger	R+29	0.029	0.021-0.039	Safe R	market
TN-02	Tim Burchett	R+17	0.043	0.035-0.052	Safe R	market
TN-03	Chuck Fleischmann	R+18	0.035	0.027-0.046	Safe R	market
TN-04	Scott DesJarlais	R+11	0.017	0.011-0.026	Safe R	market
TN-05	Andy Ogles	R+10	0.085	0.080-0.091	Likely R	market
TN-06	John Rose	R+13	0.042	0.036-0.050	Safe R	market
TN-07	Matt Van Epps	R+11	0.030	0.024-0.038	Safe R	market
TN-08	David Kustoff	R+10	0.031	0.027-0.036	Safe R	market
TN-09	Steve Cohen	R+9	0.144	0.136-0.152	Likely R	market

Table 23.
District	Incumbent	PVI	P(D)	90% band	Call	Source
TX-01	Nathaniel Moran	R+24	0.026	0.019-0.036	Safe R	market
TX-02	Dan Crenshaw	R+11	0.066	0.062-0.070	Likely R	market
TX-03	Keith Self	R+11	0.038	0.036-0.039	Safe R	market
TX-04	Pat Fallon	R+12	0.035	0.031-0.038	Safe R	market
TX-05	Lance Gooden	R+10	0.016	0.010-0.025	Safe R	market
TX-06	Jake Ellzey	R+11	0.003	0.002-0.004	Safe R	market
TX-07	Lizzie Fletcher	D+13	0.970	0.962-0.975	Safe D	market
TX-08	Morgan Luttrell	R+13	0.045	0.041-0.050	Safe R	market
TX-09	open	R+9	0.162	0.157-0.168	Likely R	market
TX-10	Michael McCaul	R+10	0.077	0.073-0.081	Likely R	market
TX-11	August Pfluger	R+17	0.027	0.021-0.036	Safe R	market
TX-12	Craig Goldman	R+11	0.056	0.051-0.061	Likely R	market
TX-13	Ronny Jackson	R+23	0.031	0.021-0.045	Safe R	market
TX-14	Randy Weber	R+12	0.026	0.018-0.037	Safe R	market
TX-15	Monica De La Cruz	R+7	0.852	0.834-0.867	Likely D	market
TX-16	Veronica Escobar	D+11	0.984	0.974-0.991	Safe D	market
TX-17	Pete Sessions	R+10	0.038	0.034-0.042	Safe R	market
TX-18	Christian Menefee	D+29	0.988	0.975-0.994	Safe D	market
TX-19	Jodey Arrington	R+25	0.025	0.017-0.038	Safe R	market
TX-20	Joaquin Castro	D+16	0.965	0.954-0.974	Safe D	market
TX-21	Chip Roy	R+10	0.042	0.032-0.054	Safe R	market
TX-22	Troy Nehls	R+11	0.046	0.042-0.051	Safe R	market
TX-23	open	R+7	0.299	0.292-0.305	Tilt R	market
TX-24	Beth Van Duyne	R+8	0.081	0.074-0.089	Likely R	market
TX-25	Roger Williams	R+11	0.026	0.019-0.035	Safe R	market
TX-26	Brandon Gill	R+11	0.025	0.021-0.029	Safe R	market
TX-27	Michael Cloud	R+10	0.045	0.039-0.052	Safe R	market
TX-28	Henry Cuellar	R+3	0.905	0.841-0.945	Likely D	market
TX-29	Sylvia Garcia	D+17	0.984	0.972-0.990	Safe D	market
TX-30	open	D+25	0.981	0.968-0.989	Safe D	market
TX-31	John Carter	R+11	0.048	0.042-0.055	Safe R	market
TX-32	open	R+8	0.131	0.125-0.139	Likely R	market
TX-33	Jasmine Crockett	D+18	0.976	0.963-0.984	Safe D	market
TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	R+3	0.824	0.763-0.871	Likely D	market
TX-35	open	R+4	0.628	0.616-0.640	Tossup	market
TX-36	Brian Babin	R+12	0.047	0.043-0.051	Safe R	market
TX-37	Lloyd Doggett	D+30	0.979	0.972-0.984	Safe D	market
TX-38	Wesley Hunt	R+10	0.032	0.024-0.043	Safe R	market
UT-01	open	D+12	0.966	0.962-0.971	Safe D	market
UT-02	Blake Moore	R+15	0.068	0.065-0.072	Likely R	market
UT-03	Celeste Maloy	R+21	0.029	0.021-0.040	Safe R	market
UT-04	Burgess Owens	R+17	0.037	0.027-0.051	Safe R	market
VA-01	Rob Wittman	R+3	0.603	0.577-0.628	Tossup	market
VA-02	Jen Kiggans	EVEN	0.875	0.855-0.892	Likely D	market
VA-03	Bobby Scott	D+18	0.970	0.947-0.984	Safe D	market
VA-04	Jennifer McClellan	D+17	0.982	0.968-0.990	Safe D	market
VA-05	John McGuire	R+6	0.336	0.331-0.342	Tilt R	market
VA-06	Ben Cline	R+12	0.064	0.061-0.067	Likely R	market
VA-07	Eugene Vindman	D+2	0.976	0.974-0.979	Safe D	market
VA-08	Don Beyer	D+26	0.979	0.966-0.988	Safe D	market
VA-09	Morgan Griffith	R+22	0.029	0.024-0.036	Safe R	market
VA-10	Suhas Subramanyam	D+6	0.980	0.969-0.987	Safe D	market
VA-11	James Walkinshaw	D+18	0.982	0.976-0.986	Safe D	market
VT-AL	Becca Balint	D+17	0.985	0.978-0.989	Safe D	market
WA-01	Suzan DelBene	D+15	0.978	0.968-0.984	Safe D	market
WA-02	Rick Larsen	D+12	0.967	0.952-0.978	Safe D	market
WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Pere	R+2	0.915	0.906-0.924	Likely D	market
WA-04	Dan Newhouse	R+10	0.068	0.064-0.072	Likely R	market
WA-05	Michael Baumgartner	R+5	0.141	0.136-0.145	Likely R	market
WA-06	Emily Randall	D+10	0.983	0.972-0.990	Safe D	market

Table 24.
District	Incumbent	PVI	P(D)	90% band	Call	Source
WA-07	Pramila Jayapal	D+39	0.980	0.965-0.988	Safe D	market
WA-08	Kim Schrier	D+3	0.986	0.971-0.993	Safe D	market
WA-09	Adam Smith	D+22	0.976	0.970-0.981	Safe D	market
WA-10	Marilyn Strickland	D+9	0.984	0.964-0.993	Safe D	market
WI-01	Bryan Steil	R+2	0.417	0.410-0.425	Tossup	market
WI-02	Mark Pocan	D+21	0.984	0.977-0.989	Safe D	market
WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+3	0.754	0.744-0.763	Tilt D	market
WI-04	Gwen Moore	D+26	0.962	0.948-0.972	Safe D	market
WI-05	Scott Fitzgerald	R+11	0.019	0.012-0.032	Safe R	market
WI-06	Glenn Grothman	R+8	0.067	0.064-0.069	Likely R	market
WI-07	Tom Tiffany	R+11	0.043	0.039-0.048	Safe R	market
WI-08	Tony Wied	R+8	0.098	0.092-0.104	Likely R	market
WV-01	Carol Miller	R+22	0.025	0.018-0.035	Safe R	market
WV-02	Riley Moore	R+20	0.033	0.027-0.040	Safe R	market
WY-AL	Harriet Hageman	R+23	0.050	0.040-0.063	Likely R	market

Table 25.
Series	Public address
Polymarket House winners	https://polymarket.com/event/[state]-[nn]-house-election-winner
Polymarket Senate winners	https://polymarket.com/event/[state]-senate-election-winner
Polymarket governor winners	https://polymarket.com/event/[state]-governor-winner-2026
Polymarket House control	https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026
Polymarket Senate control	https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026
Polymarket balance of power	https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms
Polymarket R House seats	https://polymarket.com/event/republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections
Polymarket R Senate seats	https://polymarket.com/event/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927
Polymarket R governors	https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-republican-governors-after-the-2026-midterm-elections
Polymarket House popular vote	https://polymarket.com/event/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224
Kalshi House control	https://kalshi.com/markets/controlh (event CONTROLH-2026)
Kalshi Senate control	https://kalshi.com/markets/controls (event CONTROLS-2026)
Kalshi R and D House seats	series KXRHOUSESEATS, KXDHOUSESEATS (events -27)
Kalshi R Senate seats	series RSENATESEATS (event RSENATESEATS-27)
Kalshi balance of power	series KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO (event -27FEB)
Kalshi race winners	series KXHOUSERACE-[ST][nn]-26, HOUSE[ST][n]-26, SENATE[ST]-26, GOVPARTY[ST]-26
PredictIt, all 2026 markets	https://www.predictit.org/api/marketdata/all/; market pages https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/[id]
District baselines	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativeselections and the ratings, Senate, gubernatorial and 2025-2026 redistricting pages

Table 26.
Venue	Series	Access route
Polymarket	events and markets	Gamma API, events?tagslug=midterms, paginated to the end
Polymarket	price history	CLOB prices-history per token, one point a day
Kalshi	race winners and national markets	trade-api/v2 events?status=open&withnestedmarkets=true, paginated
Kalshi	control events	trade-api/v2/events/CONTROLH-2026 and CONTROLS-2026
Kalshi	seat brackets	trade-api/v2 markets?seriesticker=[series]
Kalshi	price history	series/[series]/markets/[ticker]/candlesticks, period 1440 minutes
PredictIt	all markets	marketdata/all, one file
Wikipedia	district baselines	MediaWiki API, page wikitext with revision ids

Table 27.
File	What it holds
data/SOURCES.csv	every raw file (2,091): address fetched, response status, fetch time in UTC and Central time, bytes, SHA-256
data/MANIFEST.sha256	SHA-256 of every file in the data and code directories
data/seatcallshouse.csv (also senate, governor)	per-seat calls with the per-venue evidence listed under Data availability
data/results.json	every scalar quoted in the text
data/gaps.csv	every gap in coverage and how it is handled
data/verifyoffline.txt, data/verifyonline.txt	output of the offline rerun and of the live re-query
code/verify.py	offline rerun and byte-for-byte comparison; with the online flag, a live re-query of a fixed sample
code/fetch_*.py, code/buildmodel.py	download (cache-first) and the model, seed 20261020
code/makefigures.py, code/maketables.py	every figure and table
replicationpackage.zip	code, derived data, per-seat evidence, small raw caches, control histories; commands in READMEREPLICATION.md

Abstract

Prediction markets now quote a price on almost every 2026 midterm race. We take the quotes of Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt thirteen days before the election, remove each book's margin, and pool the venues into one probability per seat with a measurement band, for 435 House seats, 35 Senate races and 36 governorships. Summed, the seat prices give 239.8 expected Democratic House seats (90% interval 221-259), 51.3 Democratic senators (46-56) and 26.0 Democratic governors of 50 (21-30). We then test the seat prices against the venues' own chamber-control and seat-bracket contracts. In the Senate they agree: a factor copula calibrated to the bracket prices gives Democrats a 62.8% chance of control, against a chamber price of 64.5%. In the House they do not. At the loading the brackets select, the House seat prices imply a 97.7% chance of a Democratic majority while the control contract trades at 90.9%, and a common shift of -0.18 logit on every seat, with a somewhat larger common factor, reconciles seats, brackets and control at once and lowers the expected Democratic count to 235.5. Regressed on district partisanship and incumbency, the seat prices treat an open R+3 district as a toss-up. Read as an event-linked future, the House control price has an annual logit volatility near one, far too little to reach one half before election day. Tables list every per-seat call with its sources, for scoring after the vote.

Keywords: prediction markets, midterm elections, House of Representatives, Senate, seat forecast, Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, devigging, favourite-longshot bias, factor copula, event-linked futures, limits to arbitrage

How to cite

Majumdar, A. (2026). What the Markets Have Already Decided: A Seat-by-Seat Reading of the 2026 Midterm Prediction Markets. SSRN Working Paper No. 7648300. https://ssrn.com/abstract=7648300

@techreport{majumdar_us_midterms_2026_prediction_market_seat_forecast,
  author={Majumdar, Anirban},
  title={What the Markets Have Already Decided: A Seat-by-Seat Reading of the 2026 Midterm Prediction Markets},
  institution={SSRN},
  number={7648300},
  year={2026},
  url={https://ssrn.com/abstract=7648300}}

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What the Markets Have Already Decided: A Seat-by-Seat Reading of the 2026 Midterm Prediction Markets